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Crisis Averted.For the moment.

Tue, 13/04/2010 - 15:07 |  Prometheus

 

A Greek rescue or simply tragedy delayed. The markets gave a tentative thumbs up to the weekend announcement of a rescue package, although as predicted the word fudge is writ large across the details.

In short the rescue package underpins Greek debt at 5% by offering a lifeline of EU and IMF funds at that rate, although confusion reigns about who stumps up first. If it is the IMF how happy can members be if they can't see any realistic plan for deficit reduction, while devaluation or debt restructuring is off the table. Meanwhile if EU funds are used first there are already rumblings of legal action in Germany as this plan seems to ignore the "no bail out clause" of the constitution. And to be fair you can see why.

As Jennifer Hughes points out in today's FT if there is now an implicit guarantee behind all EU soveriegn debt then you should buy Spanish, Italian and Portuguese debt as it is very cheap. But you should sell German & French debt as it is far too expensive as underpinning the rest of the Eurozone undermines its financial position. You may recall from the last entry this is a problem because both Germany and France have significant deficits (and what is more with a much shorter maturity profile than our own) so this adds a significant burden to them, particularly if they are shouldering the lions share of bailout costs and coping with subdued growth.

In short don't yet count on the bailout working. As we have said before we are playing a new game and the outlook is far from certain, largely because we still don't know the rules.

And finally....

A City bond trader has set up a charity page to raise £100m for Greece. As he says:

"Greece is in a deep financial crisis. Donating here will go a long way to helping these poor people who have lived beyond their means for the last 10 years and are now struggling to pay their bills. Please think of them as they avoid their taxes and then blame evil speculators rather than face up to the fact that lying about their national statistics was probably more of a factor. Please donate in pounds as all euro payments will soon be subject to a 50pc haircut.”

Donations include £15 from someone calling themselves Angela Merkel with the touching comment “Greek swine”.

A certain Anthony Chisnall has promised £10 but only if they stop smashing all their crockery. Mr Turkey said he would donate £10 in return for an island.

Even the British Museum is reported on the site to have stumped up a tenner along with the message: “Have you lost your marbles.”

 

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